Election latest: Tories to collapse in worst result ever, exit poll projects; Farage forecast to become an MP (2024)

By Matthew Thompson, news correspondent

Only yesterday, I wrote that I felt the Lib Dems would be happy with any result over 40 seats, and if they topped 70, as some polls were suggesting, they'd be in dreamland.

Well, as the exit poll suggests they will get 61 seats, they may not quite have reached dreamland, but they're certainly on the outskirts.

Sir Ed Davey said he was "humbled by the millions of people who backed the Liberal Democrats" as the party said it thought it was on course for their best results in a century.

If they do reach 61 seats, they will fall slightly short of their record total, which was 62 back in 2005.

But the number of gains, at 53, would smash their previous record of 28, achieved in 1997.

It would appear the Lib Dems are back, restored to their cherished status as Westminster's third-largest party.

I wonder what the odds are of Sir Ed turning up to his count in a wetsuit?

The second result of the night has been declared - Labour has held the constituency of Blyth & Ashington.

Reform UK is again in second, and the Conservative Party has crashed to a distant third.

The full result is:

Majority: 9,173

Ian Lavery was chair of the Labour Party from 2017 to 2020, when Jeremy Corbyn led the party.

Speaking to Sky News following the declaration, he said that "so many people are desperate for change, and that's why, hopefully... we'll see a handsome majority for the Labour Party".

"The Labour Party will deliver, particularly for working people," he pledged.

With 4,515 candidates contesting this election (a record) in 650 constituencies, there will be so much happening very quickly tonight.

So we have picked out some key seats to keep an eye on this evening:

• Aberdeenshire North & Moray East: Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross is standing here - which he took the nomination for at the last minute from an ill colleague.
• Ashfield: Lee Anderson, a former Labour councillor and Tory MP, who now represents Reform, is hoping to hold the Midlands seat for his latest party.
• Basildon & Billericay: The Conservative Party chair, Richard Holden, is standing here, having switched from a seat in Durham, which caused huge anger locally. Normally a safe Tory haunt, if this goes to a recount then it will show the depth of trouble the party could be in.
• Birmingham Ladywood:Usually a Labour seat, but one to watch amid anger over party’s stance on Gaza.
• Boston & Skegness: This is where Reform chairman Richard Tice is standing, hoping to unseat the Conservatives.
• Braintree: Home Secretary James Cleverly's seat, which the exit poll says is too close to call. If he doesn't hold it, it will show the Conservative Party might be in real trouble.
• Brighton Pavilion: The Greens' Sian Berry is hoping to hold their only Westminster berth, which Caroline Lucas is stepping back from.
• Bristol Central: The Green Party looks likely to unseat Labour shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire.
• Caerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru might be able to clinch Tory chief whip Simon Hart's constituency.
• Chichester: The Liberal Democrats could take Education Secretary Gillian Keegan's seat.
• Chingford & Woodford Green: Veteran Tory Sir Iain Duncan Smith contesting against Labour and independent Faiza Shaheen.
• Clacton: Nigel Farage looks set to finally win a seat in the Commons at the eighth time of asking.
• Devon Central: Mel Stride, a key Sunak ally and cabinet minister, could be ejected by Labour.
• Fareham & Waterlooville: Suella Braverman's seat, which could go to Reform.
• Forest of Dean: Transport Secretary Mark Harper could lose his seat to Labour.
• Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes: Our target towns - Sky News has explored in depth the election through the lens of the Lincolnshire seat. Sarah-Jane Mee will be here to bring you the result as it happens.
• Godalming and Ash: Jeremy Hunt looks set to lose his seat to the Lib Dems - the first sitting chancellor ever to be ejected at an election.
• Hertsmere: Deputy PM Oliver Dowden is fighting off a challenge from Labour, whose candidate was on popular TV show Gogglebox.
• Holborn & St Pancras: Sir Keir Starmer's seat - it is a very safe Labour constituency. Mark Austin is here to keep an eye on the man who looks set to be the next prime minister.
• Islington North: Will Jeremy Corbyn be able to win his seat as an independent - or will Labour keep a hold of it? The exit poll says it is too close to call.
• Norfolk South West: Former prime minister Liz Truss is standing to retain her seat.
• Plymouth Moor View: Veterans minister Johnny Mercer appears to be on track to lose his seat to Labour.
• Portsmouth North: Penny Mordaunt's future as an MP - and Tory leadership hopeful - is too close to call, with Labour 70% likely to take it, the exit poll suggests.
• Richmond & Northallerton: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's seat. If the Conservatives lose here, it will be a sign things have gone very wrong - and Anna Botting is there to keep us abreast throughout the night;
• Rochdale: George Galloway appears set to lose to Labour the seat he won earlier this year in a by-election.
• Somerset North East & Hanham: With boundary changes and the electoral forecasts, Jacob Rees-Mogg is fighting here to keep his seat in Westminster from Labour - and it is too close to call.
• Welwyn Hatfield: Defence secretary and media veteran Grant Shapps is expected to lose his seat to Labour.
  

Those were the words of Ruth Davidson, the former leader of the Scottish Conservative Party, as she reacted to the exit poll's projections earlier.

The poll, which is not a final count, suggests the Tories could be relegated to their worst election defeat ever.

"There's no dressing this up," she told Sky News.

Watch Ms Davidson's full reaction below...

We've also heard from a Tory party spokesperson, who says the poll is a projection only and it's important to "wait to see the actual results come in".

Repeating the party's campaign rhetoric, they add: "But if these results are correct, it is clear that Starmer and Angela Rayner will be in Downing Street tomorrow.

"That means your taxes will rise and our country will be less secure."

The first result is in - and Labour's shadow education secretary Bridget Phillipson has won in Houghton and Sunderland South.

Reform UK came second.

Here's the full result:

Majority: 7,169 votes

Speaking immediately after the declaration, Ms Phillipson says: "The people have spoken. And if the exit poll this evening is again a guide to results across our country, as it so often is, the after 14 years the British people have chosen change.

"They have chosen Labour, they have chosen the leadership of Keir Starmer. Today, our country with its proud history has chosen a brighter future."

Polls closed just over an hour ago in all 650 seats, and the counts are under way.

We've had the broadcasters' exit poll, which is an estimate of the outcome of the election - and they have historically been on the money, albeit with a slight margin of error.

By tomorrow morning, we expect to have the results in almost every constituency - and know which party will be running the United Kingdom for the next five years.

So if you're staying up with us to follow every twist and turn of election night, here's how we expect it to unfold.

Before 11.30pm - first results expected

Counting got under way at 10pm when polls closed, and the first results are expected soon.

It's usually constituencies in the North East that come through first - Blyth & Ashington, and Houghton & Sunderland South will be vying for the first declaration.

1am - first concrete indication of how night is unfolding

We are expecting to start getting declarations in seats across the country from 1am as counts conclude.

Counts will continue throughout the night, but at this point, we will start to get a sense of how things are going and whether the exit poll is broadly accurate.

We are expecting to learn the result in Basildon & Billericay, where Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden is standing - having switched from a seat in Durham.

Normally a safe Tory haunt, if this goes to a recount then it will show the depth of trouble the party could be in.

2am - how the 'Red Wall' is faring

We expect more and more seats to be declared at this point, especially in areas emblematic of the coalition of voters Boris Johnson won over in 2019 - and it will show if those voters have stayed blue.

If not, then the likes of Jacob Young and Simon Clarke will not be heading back to Westminster as MPs.

We'll also have an indication of how things will be going in Scotland, with seats like Rutherglen and Hamilton & Clyde Valley expected to have declared.

3am - will Tory big beasts keep their seats?

Around this time, we expect to learn whether people like Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Sir Iain Duncan Smith, Transport Secretary Mark Harper, former home secretary Suella Braverman, and leader of the Commons Penny Mordaunt will keep their seats.

4.30am - confirmation of the next government

At around 4.30am, we should have concrete confirmation of the colour of the next government, with one party expected to have crossed the magic number of 326 seats to win a Commons majority.

We will also learn if Rishi Sunak has kept his seat of Richmond and Northallerton - no incumbent PM has ever lost their seat before…

7am - Sophy Ridge and Sam Coates lead Sky News coverage

Taking over from the night team, our lead politics presenter Sophy Ridge and deputy political editor Sam Coates will go on air live from Westminster as the next government arrives in Downing Street.

They will guide you through a historic day, as all parties process the results from overnight.

Nigel Farage could be about to become an MP at the eighth time of asking, according to the broadcasters' exit poll.

The Reform UK leader is set to win election to parliament in Clacton, Essex, it projects.

You can look up what the exit poll forecasts for your constituency with our lookup tool here:

We'll be bringing you snapshot summaries updates on the hour, every hour tonight.

It's 11pm - here's what you need to know:

• The broadcasters' exit poll projects Labour will win a landslide of 410 seats - relegating the Tories to their worst election result in history on 131;
• Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt are among the high-profile Tories who are set to miss out, according to the poll;
• Sir Keir Starmer thanked those who voted for his party today, but Labour is setting in for a "long night" as the results come in;
• Our political editor Beth Rigby said if the results are accurate, it represents a "landmark moment".

Here are the results of the exit poll:

And you can check the projected results in your constituencyhere:

After 19 years as MP for Welwyn Hatfield in Hertfordshire, Grant Shapps now looks set to suffer the same ignominious fate as Michael Portillo - another Conservative defence secretary who famously lost his seat in the Blair landslide of 1997.

Mr Shapps has had a high profile and eventful career, serving in cabinet under every Tory PM since his election in 2005 - apart from Theresa May.

He's weathered his share of colourful headlines, too, including the extraordinary revelation he'd continued working a second job selling "get rich quick" schemes under the pseudonym Michael Green after becoming an MP.

Last year Mr Shapps was secretary of state for five different departments - transport, business, energy, home and defence - and he's known as one of the best communicators in government.

He's frequently sent out to bat for the Tories on the morning broadcast round.

As a former party chair and keen political operator - whose spreadsheet of MPs' loyalties helped elect Boris Johnson as leader - he was widely tipped as a future leadership contender himself (even if his previous attempt to run in the summer of 2022 ended after just four days).

But such hopes have been looking increasingly remote given the Tories' dire polling - and tonight's exit poll suggests he's likely to lose to Labour's Andrew Levin.

The writing's really been on the wall since the local elections in May, when the Tories suffered a real drubbing, going from the biggest party on the council to the smallest.

Welwyn Hatfield was a Labour seat under Tony Blair's first two terms, andit's been a key target this time.

Mr Shapps' majority is just under 11,000 and Mr Levin needs a swing of just over 10% to win.

The ballot boxes are streaming through the doors here at Welwyn Garden City's roller disco arena - we'll know his fate for sure when the declaration comes at around 3.30am.

As we're reporting here on Sky News, Labour is set to win a landslide victory, while the Tories could get their lowest seats ever (see the exit poll numbers in full here).

The poll was conducted by Ipsos UK for Sky News, the BBC and ITV News - and the political scientists and data experts behind it have provided some more detail.

Labour

Sir Keir Starmer's party appears to have secured a landslide victory, as the polls expected - but it could do this on a smaller share of the vote than Jeremy Corbyn won in 2017.

The Labour vote is up more in seats where a large part of the population say they are in bad health - a measure of relative deprivation, and in places where more people voted Leave in 2016.

Labour also seem to be advancing strongly in Scotland, where they look set to overtake the SNP as the largest party, but less well in Wales, where they are in power.

Conservative Party

The plummet in seats for Rishi Sunak's party is set to be affected by a rise in support for Reform in areas the Tories were previously strongest.

Adding to the Tories' woes, the rise in support for Labour is stronger in seats where it started off in second to them.

Another interesting titbit is that the Tories appear to have suffered heavily in areas where more than a third of households have a mortgage - a likely reflection of the damage of Liz Truss's mini-budget that sent interest rates rocketing.

Liberal Democrats

The Lib Dems appear to have rebuilt the support that crashed in 2015 after five years in coalition with the Conservatives.

Reform UK

Nigel Farage's party appears to be on course to win many more seats than campaign polls suggested due to Tory vote shares falling - and also to make headway in leave-voting areas.

But its final seat total is highly uncertain, because the model suggests there are many plans where they have some, but a relatively low, chance of winning.

Green Party

The Greens are performing well in areas where the population is relatively young, which could explain why Labour's share of the vote could be below 40%.

And despite the left-wing party being on track for their highest ever vote share, they may pick up just two or three seats due to their votes being evenly distributed across the country.

SNP

The SNP appears to be on course to crash to defeat, with Labour set to become the biggest party in Scotland once again.

John Swinney's party's vote appears to have held up most in areas where a high proportion of people identify as Scottish rather than British.

But the exit poll only has a small number of sampling points in Scotland, meaning if it has even slightly overestimated Labour's advantage, the SNP's tally could end up being higher.

That means the result in Scotland must be treated with great caution.